If you’ve been paying attention to accounts (like @JuliaDavis) covering Russian state TV, one of the only places Russians are allowed to get their news, you know about their daily frantic fascist war-mongering. For this update, I’m going to go through a segment where a host and his guest discuss how easy it would be for Russia to just go ahead and conquer the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Remember, everything on Russian TV is sanctioned by the government. This segment fits into Vladimir Putin designs to rebuild the Soviet Union. Remember, he considers its dissolution as the greatest catastrophe of the 21st century. So this isn’t Fox News-style nutpicking. This is Russian state policy, communicated via Russian state propaganda.
How, for example, the scenario for the actual capture of the Baltic states might look like. A massive Russian radio-electronic strike is inflicted, all means of radio-electronic suppression of the western military district, the Baltic Fleet are turned on, NATO radars go blind, they see nothing.
If Russia had “massive electronic suppression,” it would’ve been used in Ukraine to stop drone coverage and targeting, if nothing else, but also Ukraine’s radio communications, intelligence gathering, precision-guided munitions, and the like. But, let’s assume for a moment that Russia possesses such ability to blind NATO’s radars, do they really think that there’s no other ways for NATO to assess what’s happening?
There are spy satellites providing both real-time visual coverage of the region, as well as intercepts of Russian communications. There’s a reason Joe Biden could announce, confidently, that Putin had delivered the order to attack several days before the actual invasion took place. Heck, you can track such movements via commercial satellites on Twitter and Telegram! NATO aircraft provide additional eyes on the ground, as does every single person with a cell phone in the region.
A Russian aircraft does not as much as twitch without NATO knowing about it. There’s no such thing as “blinding NATO.”
At this time, Russian military transport aircraft land on the territory of the Swedish island of Gotland, delivering S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems there. And at the same time the coastal anti-ship missile systems Bastion.
Gotland is a Swedish island smack in the middle of the Baltic Sea.
Sweden didn’t need public saber-rattling to start sweating Gotland, sending troops and anti-aircraft missiles to the island earlier this year. The island is surrounded by NATO nations (the three Baltic nations, Poland, Germany, Denmark, and Norway, and two more nations that will be part of NATO this summer, Finland and Sweden. Those two already integrating into NATO’s command structure. In fact, Swedish aircraft have been running patrols around Ukraine and Belarus in NATO’s surveillance rotation since the beginning of the year.
Gotland’s strategic importance is self-evident, so it’s natural that Russia would need to hold it on any move toward the Baltic nations. But the idea that Russia—the very same nation that failed multiple airborne assaults on Hostomel airport near Kyiv—would somehow land an airborne force large enough to fend off the local Swedish garrison and massive air assaults from Sweden, Finland, and the rest of NATO, is laughable. And to think that they would then land an S-400 system?
Each one of those massive launchers would have to be sent by air, as well as those massive missiles. The Baltic would be swarming with allied aircraft. Nothing would get through that screen. Sea reinforcement wouldn’t just take much longer, but would be subjected to NATO navies, including nuclear submarines. Russia’s navy can’t even handle a country with no navy, now they’re going to face off against real opposition?
Of course, this clown on Russian TV is under the delusion that NATO is sitting around blissfully unaware of Russia’s masterful cloaked invasion. Drop any pretense of secrecy, and this plan is already ludicrously implausible.
They [the S-400s] are deployed here, at this time no one sees or knows anything yet. The West is wondering why we do not see what is happening with our radars?
LOL, yeah, thats not how things work. But if you’re going to spin a yarn as stupid as this one, sure, go ahead and pretend.
At the same time, the Suwalki corridor, here is is, the Kaliningrad grouping of the Russian army and the Belorussian armed forces block the Suwalki corridor, united, and isolate NATO and Poland from the Baltic countries.
The Suwalki corridor is on the boundary of Poland and Lithuania. It is a flat, narrow piece of land connecting Belarus with Russia’s outpost at Kaliningrad on the Baltic ocean. Again, the pretense here is that everyone is sitting around twiddling their thumbs, unaware that Belarus has mobilized its army and has massed it on its western edge. In reality, NATO would know this weeks in advance. NATO even knows when munitions depots are opened for supply. Furthermore, NATO troops—including significant American forces—are already stationed in both Poland and Lithuania, a tripwire in case Russia attempts anything this stupid. And while the overall number of NATO forces are small, several thousands, they would be backed up by NATO’s biggest asset—its air force. Russia can’t manage air superiority against Ukraine, a nation with minimally functional air power. Kaliningrad’s air defenses and air power would be wiped out in hours.
Meanwhile, given Belarus’ refusal to join the invasion of Ukraine, it’s cute that they think Belarus would now attack freakin’ NATO.
At the same time, in Tallinn, in Riga, in Vilnius, polite people suddenly appear, who are joyfully greeted by the local population, those who do not welcome, they simply hide and close themselves in the apartments.
All super powers think their invading death forces will be greeted by joyous civilians showering flower petals on their triumphant troops. The United States is no stranger to this trap, but Russia just had that notion disabused in Ukraine! But sure, the Baltic nations are clamoring for Russian intervention. Sure. Then again, Russian TV does love showing their staged videos of Russian-flag-waving civilians in occupied Ukraine. Reality has no place in Russian propaganda.
At the same time, military groups enter Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania from the territory of the western military district. At this moment, the means of radio-electronic suppression. are turned off, and the astonished West and NATO learn that Russia was declared a no-fly zone with a radius of 400 kilometers around the island of Gotland, the entire Baltic Sea is under the gun of the Russian “Bastions” that are deployed there.
If this magical “electronic suppression” is so effective, why would they ever turn it off?
And I’m still laughing at the notion of Russia implementing a no-fly zone on NATO, and far from its core territory. Adorbs.
Those not numerous forces of special forces, special operations of Canada, Great Britain, Germany, USA in the Baltic countries, they are surrounded by regiments of the Pskov airborne division, and they lay down their arms.
This is certainly the right place for, “oh yeah? You and what army?” The Pskov airborne division, also known as the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, spearheaded Russia’s annexation of Crimea. They were part of the war-crimining Russian presence northwest of Kyiv, and are pretty much decimated as a fighting force.
Remember how certain Russian soldiers were refusing to redeploy from Kyiv to Donbas because Russia wanted them dead, to eliminate their visual evidence of the Bucha war crimes? This is the unit. They’ve done plenty of the dying in Ukraine, and Russia seems happy to let Ukraine wipe out the rest of them.
More dead members of this unit here, here, here, here, and here. Indeed, there are dozens of such obituaries. That unit has been absolutely decimated. They’ve also lost a great deal of their equipment.
These Russian airborne troops couldn’t handle Ukrainian irregulars with substandard equipment and zero air cover. What’s left of them aren’t going to be surrounding any NATO troops anytime soon, nor compelling anyone’s surrender.
The new government in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania is proclaimed by the Estonian People’s Republic, the Latvian People’s Republic, the Lithuania People’s Republic.
At this point, one of the hosts of the shows breaks out laughing, even he incredulous at the ridiculousness of this “plan.”
And that’s it. And Sweden signs an agreement on eternal neutrality by leasing the island of Gotland for a Russian military base for 99 years.
That’s it! Easy! When game planning its Ukrainian invasion, Russia violated the first rule of war: “The enemy also has a say in the outcome.” Their invasion of Ukraine seemed as ludicrous from the very beginning as this does. But they went in undermanned and under-resourced, expecting 50% of Ukraine’s military to defect and fight with Russia, expecting towns to open their gates, expecting lots of bribe money to grease the skids, like it did in Khersons (and Afghanistan). Militarily, the invasion never stood a chance, even if Russia had fielded perfect logistics and air superiority, and they had neither.
This fantasy conquest of the Baltic countries is symptomatic of Russian thinking—that its former colonies long for more of the same oppression and wouldn’t fight back, would welcome them with open arms. And while anyone who understands the actual military capabilities of NATO vis a vis Russia knows this is laughable stupid, the Russian people don’t. Ukraine was an easy “special military operation.” Russia is so mighty and powerful, that it would similarly be easy to conquer the Baltic states. And Russia’s populace, suffering from economic stagnation, are thrilled to wave the colonialist Soviet flag. War has always been a great distraction for domestic discontent.
And while Russian propaganda fans the flames, the government believes its own nonsense, issuing new threats against Poland, those Baltic nations, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Japan, even the United States. Yet the myth of Russian invincibility and might is mortally punctured.